Azerbaijan doesn’t give a dime about who leads the United States

Chingiz Mammadov

Introduction: short-term reality

In a recent press conference on July 20 in Shusha, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was asked whom Azerbaijan would prefer to see as the next President of the United States. He responded that he would prefer a Republican administration.

This answer reflects the current reality. The US has one of the most pro-Armenian administrations in its history at the moment. President Joe Biden is a member of the Armenian Caucus and was one of the initiators of the 907 amendment to the US Freedom Support Act adopted in 1992, which prohibited direct assistance from the US Government to Azerbaijan. Nancy Pelosi, a senator from California with a very active Armenian minority, is the head of the minority in the Senate. Adam Schiff is a senior member of the House Committee on the Judiciary. Thus, President Aliyev’s assessment and response are natural and logical.

But what about the long-term perspective?

Does it matter much for Azerbaijan which administration will lead the US in the years to come?

To address this question, we need to look at the overall standing of the US in the world.

The dynamics of US standing in the world

The US is still the most powerful and influential country globally. Its economy constitutes 24-25% of the world’s total GDP in nominal terms, and 15-16% by purchasing power parity (PPP). These are significant shares. However, if we look at the dynamic, the US’s relative strength and might have changed over time. For comparison, in 1960, it accounted for 40% in nominal terms, almost twice as much as now. In 1960, China’s share was 4%, and by 2023 it had increased to 16%, showing a fourfold increase and a shrinking gap between the two economies. Similarly, the US’s political and military weight is also diminishing. Thus, although it may appear that the economic, political, and military might of the US is unchallenged, in reality, US supremacy is being challenged worldwide.

To save time and space, we can avoid lengthy explanations of why this happens. In essence, this process will continue regardless of which administration, Democrat or Republican, leads the country. The speed of decline might vary slightly depending on many factors, but the overall tendency cannot be reversed. All empires have periods of initiation, rise, stability, and decline. If Democrats, with their involvement in global affairs, are in power, the decline will be faster; if Republicans, with their isolationist approach, are in power, it will be slower. How does the shifting global influence of the US impact relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Geopolitics matter

Why did Azerbaijan, which suffered military defeat from Armenia in the late 1980s and early 1990s, manage to defeat Armenia between 2020 and 2024? Was it solely due to the military supremacy of Azerbaijan over Armenia? Relative military strength played a role, but the geopolitics of the 2020s created the necessary conditions. Azerbaijan was able to defeat Armenia and restore its territorial integrity as the previous “concord” and then the “neutrality” between Russia and the West ended.

Deprived of joint support from Russia and the West, Armenia could not withstand Azerbaijan. In the near future, there are no signs that the rivalry between Russia and the West will diminish. Russia is not a rising power either. It will vehemently protect its interests in areas close to its “core,” like Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states. But in more remote areas, like the South Caucasus, it will be content if someone guarantees the safety of its interests. That’s why Russia prefers a capable and independently oriented Azerbaijan over a weak and bendy Armenia.

Will real Armenia survive or will it become history?

Thus, regardless of which administration leads the US in the long run, say, not in this, but already in the next presidential elections, Azerbaijan will maintain the upper hand in its relations with Armenia and the geopolitical situation will also be in its favor. Therefore, it is in the best interest of Armenia to reach a peace agreement with Azerbaijan on the terms offered by Azerbaijan; otherwise, the future looks pretty gloomy for Armenia.