Do we really have any reason to hurry?

Chingiz Mammadov, Independent Expert, Former Head of the Communications Office of the President of Azerbaijan, Former Head of Environmental Projects of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Azerbaijan.

What are Azerbaijan’s false friends worried about?

Recently, after the United States made certain concessions to Russia to successfully compete with China, the Western “friends” of Azerbaijan became very worried. The real and collective “Thomas de Waals” raised a universal outcry that “Oh God, as soon as Russia ends the war with Ukraine, it will begin to strengthen its position in the region again, will try to seize the South Caucasus anew, Azerbaijan must therefore soften its demands towards Armenia, which Azerbaijan firmly insisted on earlier, and as soon as possible conclude a peace treaty with Armenia.

It is likely that the ideas expressed by the real Thomas de Waal in his article “Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward”, published on March 17 on the page of the Carnegie Endowment of the USA (https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/03/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-next-steps?lang=en),  the Western politicians and diplomats are trying to “sell” to Azerbaijan’s leadership behind closed doors.

The position of the real and collective “Thomas de Waals” is shared by some ordinary citizens of Azerbaijan, as well as by certain public figures both inside and outside the country. Their concern is understandable. Over the past two hundred years, Russia has caused significant suffering and hardship to Azerbaijan. This includes the occupation of the khanates, the transfer of our lands first to the Armenians and then to Armenia, ethnic cleansing, and attacks on our national identity, language, and culture—among other issues. Therefore, such emotional reactions are understandable.

But let’s examine how much this emotional reaction aligns with reality, and whether it serves Azerbaijan’s national interests to abandon our just demands on Armenia and hastily conclude a peace agreement with it.

The main arguments of our” friends”

The main argument of the “Thomas de Waals” is that Russia’s engagement in the war with Ukraine was the main factor in ensuring Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Yes, the more Russia is occupied with matters outside our region, the more beneficial it is for us. It is also true that we fully restored our sovereignty in September 2023, following the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

But let’s not forget that Azerbaijan’s decisive achievement, its victory in the 44-day war in 2020, occurred two years before the Russian-Ukrainian war. During the 44-day war, Russia took a neutral position in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, unlike in previous centuries and decades. While it continued to supply Armenia with ammunition on a relatively small scale, Russia did not use its military force against Azerbaijan this time.

Even the Armenians, who relied on Russia’s undisputed support over the past two hundred years, tried to present such a neutral position of Russia as a deal between the Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani troika. In reality, there was no deal; rather, Azerbaijani diplomacy ensured that Russia adopted a neutral position. Why did it adopt a neutral position? Due to the fact that Russia had entered a new stage in its history, and the Azerbaijani leadership had correctly assessed the situation and taken the right steps.

Russia: No longer an expanding, but a shrinking empire

Until recently, Russia was an expanding empire, which required support areas and outposts. Russia established such outposts along its expanding borders and used them to seize new territories. This tactic was not unique to Russia; it was employed by all empires including the Romans, Ottomans, and the British.

When the Russian Empire invaded our region in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the local peoples resisted and fought against it. Among these peoples, some betrayed their own or naively hoped that Russia would not abuse them, but instead help them achieve their own goals. One group that entirely supported Russia’s arrival were the Armenians. Unlike Azerbaijanis and Georgians, the Armenians did not have their own statehood in the Caucasus before the Russians arrived, and they sought to establish it with Russian assistance. Indeed, in the Caucasus, the Armenians were the only group to support Russia “unanimously.” This was true two hundred years ago, and again, a century ago in April 1920, when the Armenian attack on Karabakh allowed the 11th Red Army to easily occupy Baku and end Azerbaijan’s first republic. Later, in the 1990s, Azerbaijan—having just regained its independence—was again attacked by Armenians.

But the “golden”, expanding age of the Russian Empire is already over. Russia is no longer an expanding, but a shrinking empire. Russia, which once occupied or controlled all of Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, the South Caucasus, and Turkestan, has now lost these territories and is gradually shrinking. As a shrinking empire, Russia no longer needs outposts. On the contrary, it is in dire need of security guarantees. In this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan find themselves in entirely different positions.

Independent Azerbaijan, and Armenia as a state with low discretion

Azerbaijan, which pursues an independent policy unlike Armenia, does not want the domination of either Russia or the West – neither on its own territory, nor in the South Caucasus, nor in our region overall. With its independent policy, Azerbaijan pacifies Russia’s concern of the West. Russia knows that it is safe from the territory of Azerbaijan. Not because Azerbaijan supports Russia. It is simply explained by the fact that our independent policy does not allow anyone to use our territory for their own purposes. This simple fact satisfies Russia, and therefore it does not take an aggressive position towards Azerbaijan.

Armenia, as the “weak link” in the South Caucasus, previously, for two centuries used to serve as an outpost of the expanding Russian Empire. However, in the current geopolitical context, with Russia weakening, Armenia has begun to be used by the West against Russia.

By all accounts, Azerbaijan has already established its independence and is a self-sufficient country. It is not waiting for help, and it is not dependent neither on Russia nor the West. Of course, Russia, having ended the war with Ukraine in one form or another, will become more demanding. Azerbaijan, like other post-Soviet countries, will need to consider Russia’s interests more after the war than during it—there is no doubt about that. However, this consideration will only go up to a certain point.

As we noted above, Azerbaijan’s current position satisfies Russia. And on many issues, for example, on South-North transportation route, Russia must take Azerbaijan into account. The events surrounding the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in Russian airspace have once again demonstrated that Russia takes Azerbaijan into account. Russia now prefers to negotiate with Azerbaijan and most of its other neighbors, rather than relying solely on brute force. The Western-backed war with Ukraine has also weakened Russia. Unlike in the previous two hundred years, Russia can no longer rely solely on its muscles. It now engages in diplomatic efforts, forms coalitions where possible, and is content with maintaining a neutral position of those who it cannot attract to its side, such as Azerbaijan.

Is the USSR-2 project realistic?

However, some may believe that Russia’s position in the world will again become as strong as that of Tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union. This is not true. Russia no longer has the economic, political, or demographic potential for this. Military force alone is insufficient. The compromise between the United States and Russia is a reality not because Russia has grown stronger, but because the United States has weakened. Unable to counter the Sino-Russian alliance effectively, the U.S. seeks to distance Russia from China. While this desire and the concessions made by the United States offer certain political gains for Russia, it does not mean Russia will regain its former imperial power. Therefore, the idea that Russia is pursuing a “USSR-2” project—reoccupying lost territories and seizing the South Caucasus—is not grounded in reality.

Russia does not want to restore the Soviet Union, but to protect its interests from the West. Therefore, Azerbaijan satisfies Russia with its independent policy. Azerbaijan owns everything on its territory; natural resources, infrastructure, and the economy as a whole. Unlike the USSR, Russia no longer has an ideological weapon that it could use against Azerbaijan, and Russia’s pre-existing political pillars have been undermined in Azerbaijan. There are no Russian soldiers on Azerbaijani soil either. Azerbaijan has also neutralized Russian secret agents and agents of influence on its territory and in government structures.

The difference between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Armenia is in a completely different position. All of its strategic infrastructure belongs to Russia, Russian troops are stationed on its territory, and Russian-backed political forces are still firmly entrenched inside the country, preparing to take revenge on the current government.

Therefore, Armenia is very concerned. The events of recent years have shown that although Western states provide economic and political assistance to Armenia, they give up when things get hot. The West demonstrated a similar approach also in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, in the current circumstances, the only factor that can ensure Armenia’s sovereignty is the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye, which has the second strongest NATO army. The path to normalizing relations with Turkiye also passes through Azerbaijan, as Turkiye will not open its borders or establish ties with Armenia unless Armenia signs a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, regardless of who governs Turkiye in the future. 

But the Armenian collective consciousness, poisoned by the West and Russia for two centuries, does not want to accept this simple truth. The normalization of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye is also not wanted by Western Islamophobic and Turkophobic circles, because if Armenia normalizes relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye, those circles will no longer be able to use Armenia as a weapon against the Turkic world. Also, if Armenia reconciles with Azerbaijan and Turkiye, the Armenian Diaspora may lose its reason for existence altogether. Therefore, both the West and the Armenian elite, supported by it, both within Armenia and abroad, are not pressuring the Armenian leadership to accept Azerbaijan’s just demands. Instead, they are exerting pressure on Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty with Armenia without any conditions.

The West’s desire to preserve Armenia as a tool against the Turkic world

The West and revanchist forces in Armenia seek to maintain Armenia as a state capable of causing problems for Azerbaijan and Turkiye in the future. Western politicians and the Armenian leadership insist on signing a peace treaty that will leave room for an attempt at revenge in the future, and information support for this policy is provided by the real and collective “Thomas de Waals”. These forces seek to present to us their own interests with Armenia as the common interests of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The West sees that it will not be possible to protect Armenia from Russia’s wrath only by relying on its own resources. Therefore, it wants to involve Azerbaijan and Turkiye in Armenia’s defense. Of course, it would be possible to support Armenia, which would accept Azerbaijan’s fair conditions, renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Turkiye and would not be able to become an instrument of external forces again. But is it worth defending a state that, on the contrary, continues to think, dream, and even prepare for revenge? Do we really need this?

Why should we seek to make Russia, which no longer poses a great threat to us, our enemy for the sake of the interests of others? Will the West or Armenia come to our aid tomorrow in case of a threat? On the contrary, Armenia stabbed us in the back every time it had the opportunity. As for the West, if it has not helped Ukraine, which is undoubtedly closer to it than we are, there is also no reason to hope for any support from it in the event of a threat to our sovereignty.

It is likely that after signing a peace treaty or a cease-fire with Ukraine, Russia will start sorting out relations with Armenia, since Russia is very unhappy that Armenia, after two hundred years of Russia’s support, “kicked” it and sided with the West. Russia can be understood. The current Armenian state was created more by the blood of Russian soldiers than by that of the Armenian army. The fact that Armenia has turned its foreign policy around 180 degrees in a very short time strikingly resembles treason, and in politics this usually does not go away without consequences.

Russia’s showdown with Armenia has nothing to do with us directly. Now let Armenia be responsible for its own actions. We don’t need to participate in this faceoff. Let the conditional “Thomas de Waals” not think that they know our interests better than we do. In the South Caucasus, they will not be able to get hot chestnuts from the campfire with someone else’s hands, as they did in Ukraine. 

Azerbaijan has already managed to establish the most balanced relations with Russia. Let the West and Armenia sort out their own relations with Russia. Just as Turkiye remained neutral during the Second World War, now we should not enter into a confrontation between the West and Russia. We have our own interests, our own path, and our own future. First of all, this future is related to the strengthening of the Organization of Turkic States.

Azerbaijan will be able to “buy off” Russia with small concessions that will not significantly damage our country’s independence. Other Turkic states are likely to achieve the same thing. The Organization of Turkic States is a platform that allows them to jointly counter external threats and develop successfully without posing a threat to neighboring countries. Moreover, many of them, including Russia, have a Turkic-speaking population. Representatives of the Turkic peoples already make up 15% of the Russian population, and possibly even more. And their influence on Russian politics will gradually increase.

We have no reason to hurry. Whoever is in a hurry, should seriously consider accepting Azerbaijan’s demands as soon as possible.

These include the exclusion of territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the Armenian Constitution, the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the removal of European observers “armed” with binoculars from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the withdrawal of mutual economic claims in international courts and the provision of an unhindered passage between Nakhchivan and the main territory of Azerbaijan for our citizens and cargo.

The Armenian elite and the leadership have two possibilities. Either abandon their political ambitions forever, cease to be a tool in the wrong hands, turn into a state solely concerned with the welfare of its own population, or face the threat of losing their statehood. The only way to cease being a tool in the hands of others, and prioritize the needs of its own people is to accept Azerbaijan’s fair conditions, the only path to achieving genuine and lasting peace in the South Caucasus.